Crude Oil Market Reflects US Tariff Impact | USD 929.8 Bn

Overview

New York, NY – May 20, 2025 – The Global Crude Oil Market is a key driver of the world economy, with demand fueled by industries like transportation, manufacturing, and energy production. In 2024, the market was valued at USD 755.3 billion and is projected to reach USD 929.8 billion by 2034, growing at a 2.1% CAGR.

Light distillates captured a leading 38.1% market share in 2024, driven by heightened demand for gasoline, naphtha, and LPG. Transportation fuel dominated the Crude Oil Market in 2024, holding a 62.3% share.

This reflects the global reliance on gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel for road, aviation, and maritime transport. Asia-Pacific led the Crude Oil Market with a 43.8% share, valued at USD 330.8 billion. High energy demand from industrial, transportation, and power sectors in China, India, Japan, and South Korea fueled this dominance.

US Tariff Impact on Crude Oil Market

On May 13, crude oil futures surged over USD 1.60 per barrel, driven by a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction and a stronger-than-expected inflation report. Brent crude futures closed at USD 66.63 per barrel, gaining USD 1.67 or 2.57%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at USD 63.67, up USD 1.72 or 2.78%.

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The benchmarks had already risen about 4% in the prior session, fueled by the U.S.-China agreement to significantly cut import tariffs for at least 90 days, which also lifted Wall Street stocks and the dollar. Despite a 22% drop in international crude prices since their January 15 peak, refined product prices and refining margins have held steady.

Key Takeaways

• Global Crude Oil Market is expected to be worth around USD 929.8 billion by 2034, up from USD 755.3 billion in 2024, and grow at a CAGR of 2.1% from 2025 to 2034.
• Light distillates account for 38.1% of crude oil refining outputs globally.
• Transportation fuel holds a dominant 62.3% share in the crude oil market.
• In 2024, Asia-Pacific’s crude oil demand reached USD 330.8 Bn, dominating globally.

Report Scope

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Key Market Segments

By Type Analysis

• Light distillates captured a leading 38.1% market share in 2024, driven by heightened demand for gasoline, naphtha, and LPG. This segment’s dominance in the Crude Oil Market stems from its widespread use in transportation and the petrochemical industries. Rising urban gasoline consumption and increased vehicular traffic significantly boosted the segment’s share.
• Refinery advancements have also improved light distillate yields, enhancing production efficiency and economic viability. The 38.1% share underscores their critical role in energy transitions, as cleaner-burning fuels gain preference. Additionally, naphtha’s steady demand as a petrochemical feedstock for plastics and synthetic fibers further fueled growth.

By Application Analysis

• Transportation fuel dominated the Crude Oil Market in 2024, holding a 62.3% share. This reflects the global reliance on gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel for road, aviation, and maritime transport. Despite growing alternative energy adoption, petroleum-based fuels remain essential, particularly in emerging markets with limited electric vehicle penetration.
• The segment’s strength is driven by extensive global transportation infrastructure and a post-pandemic surge in travel and logistics. The 62.3% share highlights transportation fuel’s pivotal role in supporting commercial fleets, passenger vehicles, and freight systems worldwide.

Regional Analysis

• In 2024, Asia-Pacific led the Crude Oil Market with a 43.8% share, valued at USD 330.8 billion. High energy demand from industrial, transportation, and power sectors in China, India, Japan, and South Korea fueled this dominance. North America followed, bolstered by strong production in the U.S. and Canada. Europe held a moderate share, supported by refining and steady imports despite a shift to renewables.
• The Middle East & Africa contributed consistently, leveraging vast reserves and export-focused economies. Latin America had a smaller share due to political and infrastructural challenges, though Brazil and Venezuela remained notable players. Asia-Pacific’s leadership reflects its robust demand and refining capabilities, cementing its role as a global oil trade hub.

Top Use Cases

• Forecasting Price Trends: Analyzing historical and real-time data helps predict crude oil price fluctuations. This guides investment decisions for traders and companies. Understanding supply-demand shifts, geopolitical events, and production changes ensures better financial planning and risk management in volatile markets.
• Optimizing Refinery Operations: Market data on light distillates and heavy oils informs refineries about demand trends. This helps adjust production for high-demand products like gasoline or diesel. Efficient resource allocation reduces costs and boosts profitability in refining processes.
• Strategic Investment Planning: Investors use regional consumption data to identify high-growth markets like Asia-Pacific. Insights into production capacities and infrastructure guide decisions on funding new wells or refineries, ensuring alignment with global demand and maximizing returns.
• Tracking Energy Transition: Research data highlights shifts toward cleaner fuels. Understanding demand for light distillates in transportation and petrochemicals helps companies align with sustainability goals. This supports long-term strategies for greener energy solutions and regulatory compliance.
• Enhancing Supply Chain Efficiency: Data on crude oil exports and imports streamlines logistics planning. Knowing key trade routes and regional demands reduces transportation costs and delays. This ensures timely delivery to refineries and markets, improving operational efficiency.

Recent Developments

1. Saudi Aramco

• Saudi Aramco recently announced plans to boost its oil production capacity, backed by major investments in drilling and exploration. The company is also expanding its downstream operations. Additionally, Aramco is investing in carbon capture and hydrogen technologies to align with global sustainability goals.

2. ExxonMobil Corporation

• ExxonMobil made a major oil discovery offshore Guyana, adding to its estimated recoverable resources. The company is also expanding its low-carbon solutions business, focusing on hydrogen and carbon capture. Recently, ExxonMobil signed an LNG supply deal with Mexico Pacific.

3. Royal Dutch Shell

• Shell is shifting toward low-carbon energy while maintaining oil production. The company recently sold its Nigerian onshore oil business but continues deepwater exploration. Shell also invested in renewable natural gas (RNG) projects in the U.S. and expanded its EV charging network in Europe.

4. BP plc

• BP is balancing oil production with renewable investments, increasing its U.S. shale output while expanding in biofuels and EV charging. The company recently acquired TravelCenters of America to grow its convenience and mobility business. BP also revised its oil demand forecasts, expecting a slower decline than previously predicted.

5. Chevron Corporation

• Chevron is expanding its Permian Basin operations and recently acquired PDC Energy to boost its U.S. shale portfolio. The company is also investing in carbon capture and hydrogen projects, including a partnership with Microsoft on renewable energy. Chevron reported strong earnings in 2024 due to high oil prices.

Conclusion

The Crude Oil Market in 2024 demonstrated strong demand, driven by light distillates and transportation fuels, fueled by global mobility and industrial growth. Asia-Pacific’s 43.8% market share underscores its dominance in consumption and refining. While energy transitions gain traction, crude oil’s essential role persists, spurring strategic investments and innovations to meet evolving market demands.

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