Nail Polish Market to Hit USD 25.8 Billion by 2033

Tajammul Pangarkar
Tajammul Pangarkar

Updated · Oct 10, 2024

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Introduction

The Global Nail Polish Market is projected to reach approximately USD 25.8 billion by 2033, up from USD 11.1 billion in 2023, with an expected CAGR of 8.8% over the forecast period from 2024 to 2033.

The nail polish market encompasses the production, distribution, and sale of nail care products, primarily focusing on a range of formulations designed for application on fingernails and toenails. These products typically include traditional lacquer-based polishes, gel polishes, and long-lasting hybrid formulas, as well as associated nail care solutions such as base coats, topcoats, and removers.

The market caters to both personal use and professional services offered by salons, making it an important segment within the broader cosmetics and personal care industry. The nail polish market is influenced by seasonal trends, color preferences, and innovations in long-lasting and environmentally-friendly formulas, reflecting consumer demand for variety and high-performance products.

Nail Polish Market By Size

The growth of the nail polish market is driven by several key factors. A significant contributor is the rising consumer interest in personal grooming and self-care, particularly among younger demographics and working professionals who view nail care as an essential component of their beauty regimen. Additionally, the market benefits from constant product innovation, such as chip-resistant, fast-drying, and breathable nail polish formulations that appeal to a broad range of consumers.

The expanding presence of e-commerce platforms and social media influence also play pivotal roles, providing brands with direct-to-consumer sales channels and enabling them to leverage influencer marketing to create trends and boost product visibility. Moreover, the growing demand for sustainable and cruelty-free products is pushing companies to innovate, resulting in a wide variety of eco-friendly options that attract environmentally conscious consumers.

The nail polish is fueled by changing beauty standards, growing awareness of nail health, and an increased focus on expressing individual style through nail art. The market experiences fluctuations based on seasonal trends and fashion cycles, with specific shades or styles gaining popularity during different times of the year.

Professional nail services, such as manicures and pedicures offered in salons, also contribute to the market demand, as these establishments frequently purchase nail products in bulk and offer a variety of treatments that rely on quality nail polishes. Additionally, the shift towards DIY beauty routines, accelerated by the pandemic, has seen consumers investing in at-home nail kits and high-quality nail products, sustaining consistent demand.

The nail polish market presents several promising opportunities, particularly in the areas of product innovation and market expansion. There is significant potential for brands that focus on developing long-wearing, chip-resistant, and environmentally friendly formulas, which align with the rising consumer preference for sustainable beauty products. Additionally, brands can capitalize on digital transformation by enhancing their online presence through e-commerce platforms and engaging marketing campaigns on social media, reaching a broader audience and fostering brand loyalty.

Geographic expansion into emerging markets, where rising disposable incomes and growing beauty consciousness are evident, offers another avenue for growth. Furthermore, the increasing popularity of nail art and customization trends provides opportunities for companies to launch unique, high-margin products, including specialty colors, glitter, and other decorative elements that appeal to fashion-forward consumers seeking personalization in their nail care routines.

Key Takeaways

  • The nail polish market was valued at USD 11.1 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to grow to USD 25.8 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 8.8% over the forecast period.
  • In 2023, the liquid polish category dominated the product type segment, accounting for 54% of the market, largely due to its versatility and the continued consumer preference for traditional formulas.
  • The glossy finish segment led the market finishes category in 2023, capturing 26% of the market share, highlighting its enduring popularity for delivering a classic, high-shine appearance.
  • Specialty stores were the leading distribution channel in 2023, with a 38% share, attributed to their extensive range of professional nail products.
  • The Asia Pacific region emerged as the market leader in 2023, representing 38% of the market share, driven by the expanding beauty industry and increasing disposable income levels in the region.

Nail Polish Statistics

  • In the U.S., the number of women using nail polish is expected to rise from 100.89 million in 2020 to 102.13 million by 2024.
  • Online sales of nail polish increased by 30% between 2020 and 2023.
  • Natural and organic nail polishes accounted for 10% of the market in 2023.
  • The average woman owns 9 bottles of nail polish.
  • Women make up 85% of nail polish users.
  • High-end nail polish bottles are priced between $20 and $50.
  • Regular nail polish takes 10-15 minutes to dry.
  • By 2024, around 100 million women in the U.S. are expected to use nail polish, showing market stability.
  • The acrylic nail segment generated $3.5 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow significantly by 2032.
  • Approximately 70% of nail polish purchases are impulsive.
  • The shelf life of an opened nail polish bottle is 18-24 months.
  • Water-based nail polishes made up 8% of the market in 2023.
  • A typical manicure uses 0.5 ml of nail polish per nail.
  • Nail polish sales rise by 15% during holiday seasons.
  • Women spend an average of $85 per year on nail polish and related products.
  • Gel nail polish represented 25% of total sales in 2023.
  • 65% of consumers prefer nail polish bottles in the 10-15 ml size range.
  • The nail polish industry employs over 50,000 people globally.
  • In 2023, 12% of men reported occasional use of nail polish.
  • Quick-dry nail polishes dry in about 60 seconds.
  • Nail polish brands release 20-30 new shades each season.
  • The top 5 brands hold 45% of the global nail polish market.
  • 30% of nail polish consumers own more than 20 bottles.
  • Vegan nail polishes had a 5% market share in 2023, growing at an 8% rate annually.
  • The average nail salon uses 200-250 bottles of nail polish per year.
  • Nude nail polish shades accounted for 18% of sales in 2023.
  • 40% of consumers tried a new nail polish brand in the past year.
  • A standard nail polish bottle provides enough product for 30-40 full manicures.
  • 85% of nail polish production occurs in China, France, and the United States.
  • Nail polish represents over 60% of the cosmetics market share.
  • Nail salons in the U.S. employ about 386,484 people.
  • The U.S. spends $8.6 billion annually on nail services.
  • U.S. nail technicians earn an average hourly wage of $12.82.
  • Over 70% of nail salons in the U.S. are owned by women.
  • The nail industry has grown by 47% in the past decade.
  • The nail industry in China is valued at over $1.7 billion.
  • The global market for nail tools is projected to reach $1.3 billion by 2027.
  • Acrylic nails were invented in 1957 by Frederick Slack, a dentist.

Emerging Trends

  • Rise of Clean and Non-Toxic Formulations: Consumers are increasingly prioritizing nail polish products that are free from harmful chemicals like formaldehyde, toluene, and dibutyl phthalate (DBP). Brands are responding by developing “clean” and “vegan” formulas that appeal to health-conscious and environmentally-aware buyers. This shift is driving innovation in the sector, with major players and new entrants obtaining certifications such as PETA and Non-Toxic Certified to strengthen their market position
  • Growth of Breathable and Long-Wear Technologies: Breathable nail polish technology, which allows oxygen and moisture to pass through the polish, is becoming a popular trend. Companies like Orly are leading in this space, offering products that combine these breathable features with vegan and cruelty-free formulations. This innovation is particularly attractive to consumers seeking long-lasting, healthier alternatives for their nails.
  • Influence of Social Media and Digital Platforms :  Social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok play a critical role in shaping nail polish trends. Influencers and nail artists showcase intricate nail art, encouraging consumers to experiment with new styles and shades at home. Brands leverage these platforms for marketing campaigns, releasing limited-edition collections and on-trend shades that gain popularity through likes, shares, and influencer endorsements.
  • Sustainable and Eco-Friendly Options: With rising environmental awareness, there is a growing demand for sustainable nail polish products. Brands are increasingly focusing on eco-friendly packaging and biodegradable formulas. For instance, plant-based and algae-infused options are gaining traction among consumers willing to pay more for products that align with their values on sustainability.
  • Geographic Expansion and Customization Trends: The expansion into emerging markets, particularly in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, is shaping the nail polish industry. The rise of beauty consciousness in these regions, coupled with increased disposable income, is boosting demand for a variety of nail products, including halal-certified and culturally tailored options.

Top Use Cases

  • Personal Grooming and Self-Expression: Nail polish is a primary tool for self-expression, allowing individuals to create unique looks that reflect their personal style. In 2023, this segment was valued at approximately USD 14.63 billion, with consumers increasingly opting for customized colors and nail art to express individuality. The rise of social media has amplified this trend, making nail art a mainstream fashion accessory for millions worldwide.
  • Professional Nail Salons and Manicure Services: Nail polish remains a cornerstone in professional nail salons, contributing significantly to the market’s revenue. Salons frequently use high-quality gel and UV nail polishes due to their durability and superior finish. The segment for professional-use polishes is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.2% from 2024 to 2032, as consumers seek professional manicures for special occasions and everyday grooming.
  • At-Home Manicure Kits: With the rise of DIY beauty routines, the demand for at-home manicure kits has surged. The pandemic accelerated this trend as consumers invested in quality nail care products for home use. By 2032, the at-home segment is forecasted to grow significantly, with brands innovating by offering easy-to-use gel kits and long-lasting formulas that rival salon-quality finishes.
  • Special Event and Seasonal Collections: Brands often release special event and holiday-themed nail polish collections that cater to consumer demand for festive looks. Seasonal demand spikes are prominent, with collections for occasions like Halloween, Christmas, and Valentine’s Day driving sales. These limited-edition offerings have become a vital use case for brands, contributing to spikes in quarterly revenues.
  • Eco-Friendly and Vegan Nail Care Products: As consumers become more environmentally conscious, the market for vegan and eco-friendly nail polish is expanding rapidly. Companies are now formulating polishes without harmful chemicals and packaging them sustainably.

Major Challenges

  • Health and Environmental Concerns: One of the significant challenges in the nail polish market is addressing health and environmental issues associated with harmful chemicals like formaldehyde, toluene, and dibutyl phthalate (DBP). Consumers are increasingly aware of these risks, leading to a growing demand for non-toxic and eco-friendly alternatives. Brands that fail to adapt risk losing market share as regulations tighten and consumer preferences shift toward “clean beauty” products. This challenge is particularly relevant in regions such as Europe and North America, where stricter regulations and consumer activism are more pronounced.
  • Market Fragmentation and Brand Loyalty: The nail polish market is highly fragmented, with numerous established and emerging brands vying for consumer attention. This fragmentation creates intense competition, making it difficult for new entrants to build brand loyalty. For instance, large brands like OPI, Sally Hansen, and Essie dominate in North America, holding nearly 35.7% of the market share. Consumers often exhibit strong loyalty to these established brands, making it challenging for smaller or new players to penetrate the market and retain customers without significant marketing investments.
  • Rising Costs of Specialty and Long-Wear Polishes: Specialty polishes, including gel and UV-based formulations, are becoming popular due to their long-lasting properties. However, these products are more expensive to produce, impacting profit margins, especially for smaller brands. The increased cost of raw materials and advanced technologies needed to create these products adds another layer of complexity. As these polishes represent a fast-growing segment, brands must balance quality and affordability to remain competitive.
  • Supply Chain Disruptions and Geopolitical Tensions: Global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions have affected the availability of raw materials and manufacturing processes in the nail polish industry. Countries such as China and India, which are major suppliers of raw materials and finished products, have experienced manufacturing slowdowns and export restrictions. These disruptions have led to price volatility and inconsistent supply, creating challenges for brands that depend heavily on international supply chains.
  • Consumer Shift Toward DIY and At-Home Alternatives: The rise of DIY beauty routines has led consumers to explore at-home manicure kits instead of visiting professional salons.  Although this presents an opportunity, it also challenges brands as they need to innovate continuously to provide salon-quality results for home use. Developing these high-performance yet affordable products requires significant R&D investment, making it a challenging area for both existing brands and newcomers in the market.

Top Opportunities

  • Expansion of Eco-Friendly and Vegan Products: The growing consumer focus on sustainability and health-conscious products offers a significant opportunity for brands. The demand for non-toxic, vegan, and cruelty-free nail polish is increasing, with 78% of consumers prioritizing sustainability in their beauty choices. Brands that innovate in this area can capture a larger market share by appealing to eco-conscious buyers, particularly in regions like Europe and North America where these values are highly emphasized.
  • Rising Popularity of Nail Art and Customization: Nail art remains a key trend, driven by social media platforms such as Instagram and TikTok. Consumers, especially younger demographics, are eager to showcase personalized and intricate designs. The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.2% from 2024 to 2032, with a particular focus on customization options like specialty polishes, decals, and stencils. Collaborating with influencers and offering limited-edition collections can further enhance brand visibility and drive sales.
  • E-Commerce and Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channels: The shift towards online shopping presents a valuable opportunity for nail polish brands to expand their reach. The online segment is expected to grow at a rapid pace, as it offers consumers convenience, home delivery, and access to a wide variety of products. Brands investing in e-commerce platforms, digital marketing, and seamless user experiences can tap into the growing digital consumer base, particularly in emerging markets like Asia Pacific, which is poised for significant growth.
  • Innovation in Long-Lasting and Quick-Dry Formulas: There is a strong demand for high-performance products that fit into the busy lifestyles of modern consumers. Developing quick-dry, long-wear, and chip-resistant formulas can provide a competitive edge. This is particularly relevant as more consumers prefer salon-quality results that they can achieve at home. The market for such advanced formulations is projected to see robust growth, with brands that prioritize R&D in this area likely to benefit from increased consumer loyalty.
  • Geographic Expansion into Emerging Markets: Expanding into fast-growing regions such as Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America represents a key opportunity for nail polish brands. In markets like India, the nail polish industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.7% from 2024 to 2034, driven by a young population and increasing disposable income. Brands that adapt to local preferences, such as offering halal-certified or culturally relevant products, can successfully tap into these high-growth markets.

Key Player Analysis

  • Estée Lauder Companies Inc.: Estée Lauder is a major player in the global nail polish market, particularly within the luxury segment. The company leverages its premium brand image, offering high-quality and eco-friendly products that appeal to environmentally conscious consumers. Estée Lauder’s focus on sustainability and its effective use of digital marketing campaigns, including influencer partnerships, have strengthened its global presence. The company generated substantial revenues, approximately $16.22 billion, in 2023 from its diversified beauty portfolio, including nail products. Its commitment to continuous innovation, such as developing long-lasting and vegan formulations, ensures it remains a market leader​
  • L’Oréal S.A.: L’Oréal, one of the world’s largest cosmetics companies, maintains a robust position in the nail polish market through its extensive range of brands that cater to both mass-market and premium consumers. With total revenues exceeding $38 billion in 2023, L’Oréal’s strategy includes investing heavily in research and development to keep up with trends like vegan and quick-dry nail polishes. Additionally, L’Oréal’s strong e-commerce and global distribution networks enable the company to maintain a broad market reach, effectively tapping into new consumer segments and region
  • Shiseido Co., Ltd.: Shiseido is a prominent player in the Asia-Pacific nail polish market, a region that accounts for significant growth and beauty trends. The company’s focus on high-quality, culturally relevant products has helped it capture a considerable market share, particularly in China and South Korea, where the nail polish industry is thriving. Shiseido’s ability to align its products with local beauty trends while emphasizing quality ensures its relevance and expansion in these high-growth markets, with a strong foothold in the region’s beauty sector valued at around $4.22 billion​.
  • Revlon Inc.: Revlon, a well-established name in the beauty industry, remains influential in the North American nail polish market despite recent financial hurdles. The company’s product diversity, including long-wear and gel polishes, caters to a broad audience and maintains its brand loyalty. With reported sales of $1.8 billion in 2023, Revlon continues to innovate by collaborating with celebrities and launching exclusive collections, ensuring its ongoing relevance amidst evolving market trends. These strategic efforts, coupled with a focus on affordability and trend-based products, keep Revlon competitive.
  • Wella Operations US LLC (O.P.I.): O.P.I., under Wella Operations, is a leading professional nail polish brand with a strong emphasis on salon partnerships and premium offerings. Known for its high-quality formulas and vast color range, O.P.I. has carved out a niche in professional and retail channels, contributing significantly to Wella’s annual revenues exceeding $3 billion. The brand’s commitment to eco-friendly initiatives, such as launching sustainable product lines, aligns with current consumer preferences for clean beauty, ensuring its continued growth and market dominance​

Recent Developments

  • In 2023, L’Oréal announced a minority investment in SHINEHIGH INNOVATION, a biotech company in China focused on developing sustainable beauty solutions. This is L’Oréal’s first open innovation investment in China, conducted through its subsidiary, Shanghai Meicifang Investment Co., Ltd, with support from BOLD, L’Oréal’s venture capital fund. The investment also marks the first outcome from L’Oréal’s BIG BANG Beauty Tech Innovation Challenge, showcasing the company’s success in China’s open innovation ecosystem.
  • In 2023, Shiseido announced that its Board of Directors approved the acquisition of DDG Skincare Holdings LLC (DDG), a leading skincare company based in New York, USA. The decision was finalized on December 20, 2023, and a definitive agreement was signed by Shiseido Americas Corporation, its subsidiary in Delaware, on December 22, 2023 (JST December 23, 2023). This move aims to strengthen Shiseido’s portfolio with DDG’s dermatologist-led, science-based skincare products.
  • In 2023, Henkel signed an agreement to acquire the Vidal Sassoon brand and its related hair care business in Greater China from Procter & Gamble. Vidal Sassoon is known for its salon-inspired image in the retail hair care market. The acquisition allows Henkel to fill a gap in its premium hair care segment in China, enhancing its portfolio with shampoos, conditioners, and styling products. The brand had strong sales in the region, generating over 200 million euros in fiscal year 2022/2023.
  • In 2024, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. completed its acquisition of DECIEM Beauty Group Inc., a multi-brand beauty company based in Canada. ELC first invested in DECIEM in 2017, increased its stake to majority ownership in 2021, and then acquired the remaining shares for approximately $860 million on May 31, 2024. The total investment in DECIEM, net of cash, amounted to around $1.7 billion, spread across three phases, with final amounts pending post-closing adjustments.

Conclusion

The nail polish market is poised for steady growth, driven by rising consumer interest in personal grooming, the influence of social media, and an increasing demand for sustainable and innovative products. Brands that focus on developing eco-friendly formulations, expanding their digital and e-commerce presence, and catering to specific consumer preferences, such as long-wear and customizable options, are well-positioned to capture market share.

Additionally, geographic expansion into emerging markets offers substantial opportunities for growth, as regions like Asia Pacific show strong demand for nail care products. However, challenges such as regulatory compliance, supply chain disruptions, and the need for continual innovation remain critical factors for industry players to navigate effectively. Overall, the market outlook remains positive, supported by evolving consumer preferences and advancements in product technology.

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Tajammul Pangarkar

Tajammul Pangarkar

Tajammul Pangarkar is a tech blogger that frequently contributes to numerous industry-specific magazines and forums. Tajammul longstanding experience in the fields of mobile technology and industry research is often reflected in his insightful body of work. His interest lies in understanding tech trends, dissecting mobile applications, and in raising a general awareness of technical know-how. When he’s not ruminating about various happenings in the tech world, he can be usually found indulging in his next favorite interest - table tennis.

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