Mexico Pecan Nuts Market Reflects US Tariff Impact Analysis

Overview

New York, NY – April 28, 2025 – The Mexico Pecan Nuts Market is growing fast, driven by high demand and new opportunities. In 2024, the market was worth USD 127.3 million, but by 2034, it is expected to reach USD 198.7 million, growing at a steady rate of 4.6% each year.

In 2024, shelled pecans dominated, capturing a 90.3% revenue share. This is largely because they’re ready to eat or use straight out of the package, no cracking or mess required. By form, the market divides into raw, roasted, and flavored pecans, with raw pecans holding a 63.3% share in 2024. Their versatility is unmatched. Raw pecans are a go-to for home cooks, chefs, and food producers alike. Bakery products led with a 35.3% share, driven by pecans’ starring role in treats like pecan pies, muffins, cookies, and artisan breads.

US Tariff Impact on Mexico Pecan Nuts Market

By March 10, China retaliated, slapping an additional 10% tariff specifically on U.S. pecans. Fortunately, after negotiations with Mexico and Canada, the U.S. suspended its 25% tariffs under the USMCA (U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement), covering pecans. But other tariffs remain set for April.

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The spice and nut markets are sensitive to price fluctuations pecans are no exception. Mexico is essential for the U.S. pecan supply, contributing about 69% of total U.S. imports. Any additional costs will inevitably trickle down to your purchasing price.

According to the USDA Economic Research Service, exports to critical markets have already seen significant hits:

• 82% decrease in exports to China (down to just USD 10.746 million in 2024/25 compared to last year).
• 75% decrease in Mexico (USD 1.115 million), with Canada relatively stable at a 1% decrease (USD 12.297 million).

Key Takeaways

• Mexico pecan nuts market is valued at USD 127.3 million in 2024 and is estimated to register a CAGR of 4.6%.
• Mexico pecan nuts market is projected to reach USD 198.7 million by 2034.
• In Mexico pecan nuts market, without shell type held the majority of revenue share in 2024 of 90.3%.
• Among form, raw pecan nuts accounted for the majority of the market share, with 63.3%.
• Between applications, bakery products accounted for the largest market share in 2024, with 35.3%.

Analyst Viewpoint

Investing in Mexico’s pecan nut industry offers a compelling opportunity, driven by the country’s position as one of the world’s top pecan producers, alongside rising global demand for healthy snacks. The proximity to the U.S., facilitated by the USMCA trade agreement, ensures low tariffs and streamlined logistics, making it a cost-effective hub for investors. Growing consumer interest in nutritious, plant-based snacks, pecans are packed with heart-healthy fats and antioxidants, which further fuels demand.

Consumer insights reveal a shift in Mexico toward healthier snacking. Snacks consumed outside the home, per industry analyses from trade publications. Pecans, versatile for both savory and sweet applications, align well with local preferences for bold flavors like chili and lime. Yet, challenges include educating consumers about pecans’ benefits, as almonds and peanuts often dominate retail shelves.

Technologically, precision agriculture drones, soil sensors have boosted yields in some orchards, but adoption is uneven due to high upfront costs for small farmers. The regulatory environment is relatively stable, with no forced localization policies, but USMCA’s strict rules of origin require careful compliance to secure tariff benefits. Investors must also navigate water usage regulations, as pecan farming is water-intensive, and northern states face scrutiny over sustainability.

Report Scope

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Key Market Segments

Type Analysis: Shelled Pecan Nuts Lead Due to Convenience and Versatility

• The Mexico pecan nut market splits into two types: with shell and without shell. In 2024, shelled pecans dominated, capturing a 90.3% revenue share. This is largely because they’re ready to eat or use straight out of the package, no cracking or mess required. For busy consumers, food manufacturers, and snack companies, this convenience is a game-changer.
• Shelled pecans slot effortlessly into recipes for baking, cooking, or snacking, whether it’s tossing them into a salad or blending them into a granola bar. With today’s fast-paced lifestyles, people gravitate toward products that save time, and the surge in demand for ready-to-eat snacks like trail mixes and nut packs has only boosted shelled pecans’ popularity.

Form Analysis: Raw Pecans Shine for Their Flexibility Across Uses

• By form, the market divides into raw, roasted, and flavored pecans, with raw pecans holding a 63.3% share in 2024. Their versatility is unmatched—raw pecans are a go-to for home cooks, chefs, and food producers alike. They bring a buttery, crunchy goodness to everything from cookies and cakes to salads and savory dishes, without any pre-added flavors that might clash with a recipe.
• This makes them ideal for bakeries, confectioneries, and cereal makers who need a blank canvas for roasting or seasoning. The rise in health-conscious eating also plays a role, as raw pecans are seen as a wholesome, minimally processed ingredient. That said, roasted pecans, with their deeper, nuttier taste, and flavored options like spicy or honey-glazed varieties, are carving out a niche. These appeal to snackers and foodservice businesses, like restaurants, using pre-roasted pecans in desserts or salads to cut prep time while ensuring consistent flavor.

Application Analysis: Bakery Segment Takes the Cake with Pecan Popularity

• When it comes to applications, the market breaks down into snacks, bakery products, confectionery, culinary uses, and others. In 2024, bakery products led with a 35.3% share, driven by pecans’ starring role in treats like pecan pies, muffins, cookies, and artisan breads. Their rich, nutty flavor and satisfying crunch make them a favorite for both small-scale bakers and big commercial operations.
• The growing appetite for premium, indulgent baked goods, especially during holiday seasons like Thanksgiving and Christmas, has supercharged demand. Pecans also fit perfectly into the trend for healthier baked goods, like gluten-free or protein-packed options, appealing to consumers who want tasty yet nutritious treats. Bakeries lean heavily on pre-processed pecans (chopped, roasted, or ground) to streamline production, which further cements their dominance in this segment.

Top Use Cases

• Snack Industry Growth: Pecan nuts are increasingly popular in Mexico’s snack market, known locally as “botanas.” Their versatility and nutritional benefits make them a preferred choice for consumers seeking healthy, on-the-go options. The growing demand for ready-to-eat snacks has positioned pecans as a staple in this segment.​
• Bakery Applications: Mexican bakeries extensively use pecans in products like pies, cookies, and pastries. The nuts’ rich flavor and texture enhance the quality of baked goods, catering to both traditional and modern tastes. This widespread use underscores pecans’ integral role in the country’s baking industry.​
• Export Market Dynamics: Mexico stands as the world’s leading exporter of pecans, with significant shipments to the United States and emerging markets like China. The country’s favorable climate and established trade agreements facilitate its dominance in the global pecan export sector.​
• Nutritional Benefits: Pecans are rich in monounsaturated fats, antioxidants, and essential nutrients, promoting heart health and overall well-being. Their inclusion in diets aligns with the growing consumer preference for functional foods that offer health benefits beyond basic nutrition.​
• Value-Added Products: The Mexican market has seen a rise in value-added pecan products, including flavored nuts, pecan butter, and pecan oil. These innovations cater to diverse consumer preferences and open new avenues for product differentiation in the competitive nut market.

Recent Developments

1. Pecanes del Sur

• Pecanes del Sur has expanded its organic pecan production to meet rising global demand. The company invested in sustainable farming techniques and obtained USDA Organic certification. They also launched a new line of flavored pecans, targeting health-conscious consumers. Their focus on export markets, especially Europe and Asia, has boosted sales.

2. Humphrey Pecan S.A. de C.V.

• Humphrey Pecan strengthened its supply chain with advanced processing facilities to improve pecan quality. The company partnered with U.S. distributors to increase exports. They also introduced vacuum-packed pecans for longer shelf life, catering to the retail and foodservice industries.

3. SJ Pecan

• SJ Pecan adopted AI-based sorting technology to enhance pecan grading and reduce waste. They expanded into China, signing new contracts with snack manufacturers. The company also launched a direct-to-consumer e-commerce platform to reach global buyers efficiently.

4. Galeana Valley Pecan

• Galeana Valley Pecan increased its orchard acreage to meet export demand. They introduced a carbon-neutral pecan farming initiative, attracting eco-conscious buyers. The company also secured a deal with a major European supermarket chain.

5. Pecaninis

• Pecaninis launched a new line of chocolate-covered pecans and snack mixes. They expanded into the Middle East market and improved packaging for better freshness. The company also invested in social media marketing to boost brand awareness.

Conclusion

Mexico stands as a global leader in pecan production and export, contributing significantly to the world’s supply. The country’s favorable climate and advanced agricultural practices support a thriving pecan industry. With a diverse range of products and a strong export network, Mexico’s pecan sector is poised for continued growth and innovation.

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