Ice Cream Market Reflects US Tariff Impact Analysis

Overview

New York, NY – May 23, 2025 – The Global Ice Cream Market is set to grow significantly, driven by rising consumer demand and innovative product offerings. Valued at USD 92.5 billion in 2024, the market is projected to reach USD 142.3 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 4.4% from 2025 to 2034.

In 2024, cartons secured a leading 35.4% share of the global ice cream packaging market, driven by their eco-friendly and recyclable appeal. Impulse Ice Cream led the global market with a 46.2% share, propelled by the popularity of single-serve treats like sticks, cones, and bars.

Dairy And Water-Based ice creams captured a commanding 61.7% share of the global market, driven by the enduring appeal of classic dairy flavors like vanilla, chocolate, and strawberry, alongside growing demand for water-based sorbets and fruit ices. Chocolate Ice Cream held a dominant 45.3% share of the global market, favored for its timeless appeal across all demographics and regions.

US Tariff Impact on the Ice Cream Market

Last year, U.S. dairy exports reached USD 8.2 billion, the second-highest on record, per the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Companies are investing in new and expanded factories to boost overseas shipments. However, retaliatory tariffs from China and Canada threaten the industry’s global prospects.

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Over 50% of U.S. dairy exports go to Mexico, Canada, and China, all affected by Trump’s tariff policies. Canada has imposed 25% tariffs on U.S. cheese, butter, and dairy spreads, while China applies 10% duties on certain milk products. Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on trading partners on Wednesday, with delayed 25% tariffs on goods under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement also expected to take effect.

Key Takeaways

• The Ice Cream Market is projected to reach USD 142.3 billion by 2034, growing from USD 92.5 billion in 2024 at a CAGR of 4.4%.
• Cartons lead ice cream packaging with a 35.4% share, driven by rising demand for eco-friendly and recyclable materials.
• Impulse ice cream dominates by category with a 46.2% market share, fueled by consumer preference for convenient, on-the-go treats.
• Dairy and Water-Based ice creams hold a 61.7% share, reflecting strong global demand for traditional and fruity frozen desserts.
• Chocolate is the top flavor globally, capturing 45.3% of the market, favored for its rich taste and broad appeal.
• Hypermarkets and Supermarkets dominate distribution with a 37.7% share, thanks to their accessibility and wide product offerings.
• Europe leads regionally, accounting for 39.4% of global sales, valued at USD 36.4 billion, due to its mature market and high per capita consumption.

Report Scope

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Key Market Segments

By Packaging

• In 2024, cartons secured a leading 35.4% share of the global ice cream packaging market, driven by their eco-friendly and recyclable appeal. Made from lightweight, biodegradable paperboard, cartons align with rising environmental consciousness and regulatory pushes to reduce plastic waste in regions like Europe and North America. Their cost-effectiveness and versatility make them ideal for manufacturers and consumers alike.
• The popularity of multi-serve ice cream packs further bolstered carton demand, as consumers associate them with premium, family-sized products, especially for at-home consumption post-pandemic. Brands leverage cartons for vibrant, informative designs that enhance shelf appeal and communicate quality, solidifying their market dominance.

By Category

• In 2024, Impulse Ice Cream led the global market with a 46.2% share, propelled by the popularity of single-serve treats like sticks, cones, and bars. Urban consumers’ preference for convenient, indulgent snacks fueled demand, with impulse products widely available in convenience stores, supermarkets, fuel stations, and vending machines, encouraging spontaneous purchases.
• Innovative flavors, textures, and limited-edition launches kept impulse ice cream appealing, particularly to younger demographics. Seasonal promotions and branded freezer placements in emerging markets enhanced visibility and accessibility, reinforcing the category’s strong market position.

By Type

• In 2024, Dairy And Water-Based ice creams captured a commanding 61.7% share of the global market, driven by the enduring appeal of classic dairy flavors like vanilla, chocolate, and strawberry, alongside growing demand for water-based sorbets and fruit ices. Their widespread availability across retail and foodservice channels, from local shops to ice cream parlors, ensures broad consumer reach.

By Flavor

• In 2024, Chocolate Ice Cream held a dominant 45.3% share of the global market, favored for its timeless appeal across all demographics and regions. From classic milk chocolate to premium variants like Belgian or single-origin cocoa with mix-ins like caramel or brownies, chocolate delivers indulgence and comfort. Premiumization trends, including plant-based and low-sugar options, strengthened its position. Seasonal launches and collaborations with confectionery brands sustained consumer excitement, ensuring chocolate’s continued leadership in the global flavor landscape.

By Distribution Channel

• In 2024, hypermarkets and supermarkets led ice cream distribution with a 37.7% share, benefiting from extensive shelf space, diverse brand offerings, and prominent freezer displays. In-store promotions, loyalty discounts, and seasonal sales, particularly during summer and festive periods, drove bulk purchases and impulse buys.
• Sampling counters and visually appealing displays further influenced shoppers, while improved cold chain infrastructure and branded freezer investments enhanced accessibility, especially in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities across Asia, Europe, and North America. Despite online channel growth, the tactile, immediate experience of supermarkets maintains its dominance.

Regional Analysis

• Europe led the global ice cream market in 2024, commanding a 39.4% share valued at approximately USD 36.4 billion. This dominance stems from the region’s entrenched consumption culture, robust dairy industry, and well-developed retail networks. European consumers’ preference for artisanal, high-quality ice cream has driven brands to innovate with organic, vegan, and clean-label offerings.
• In 2024, dairy-free and low-sugar options surged in popularity, especially among health-conscious buyers in Northern and Western Europe. A mix of global and local brands ensures diverse product availability across hypermarkets, supermarkets, and specialty stores. Extended summer weather and increased tourism further boosted sales. EU-backed sustainable dairy practices and packaging reforms have strengthened consumer trust, positioning Europe to maintain its market leadership through innovation, strong distribution, and a focus on health and sustainability.

Top Use Cases

• Retail Consumption: Ice cream is a popular treat in households, sold through supermarkets and hypermarkets. Shoppers buy multi-serve cartons or single-serve bars for family desserts or quick snacks. Its wide flavor range, like chocolate and vanilla, and options like dairy-free appeal to diverse tastes, driving consistent demand across age groups.
• Foodservice Industry: Restaurants, cafes, and ice cream parlors serve ice cream as desserts or standalone treats. Premium and artisanal offerings attract customers seeking indulgent experiences. Seasonal flavors and vegan options cater to varied preferences, boosting sales in tourist-heavy areas, especially during summer or festive seasons.
• Impulse Purchases: Single-serve ice cream products like cones, sticks, and bars dominate impulse buying. Available at convenience stores, vending machines, and fuel stations, they appeal to busy consumers craving quick indulgence. Eye-catching packaging and limited-edition flavors encourage spontaneous purchases, especially among younger demographics in urban areas.
• Health-Conscious Diets: Low-sugar, low-fat, and plant-based ice creams cater to health-focused consumers. Made from almond, oat, or soy milk, these options suit vegan and lactose-intolerant diets. Brands innovate with high-protein or sugar-free varieties, appealing to fitness enthusiasts while maintaining flavor, expanding market reach in health-driven regions like Europe.
• Sustainable Packaging Solutions: Eco-friendly packaging, like biodegradable cartons, meets growing consumer demand for sustainability. Cartons reduce plastic waste and align with regulations in Europe and North America. Brands use vibrant designs on cartons to attract eco-conscious buyers, enhancing shelf appeal and brand loyalty.

Recent Developments

1. American Dairy Queen Corporation

• Dairy Queen has expanded its Blizzard menu with new seasonal flavors, including S’mores and Cotton Candy, while also introducing non-dairy Dilly Bars for vegan customers. The company continues to focus on limited-edition collaborations, such as the Heath Blizzard for its 40th anniversary. 

2. Amul

• Amul has launched new probiotic ice creams under its “Swell” brand, targeting health-conscious consumers. The company also introduced sugar-free and keto-friendly ice cream options in India. Amul is expanding its distribution network to smaller towns and leveraging e-commerce platforms for wider reach.

3. Blue Bell Creameries

• Blue Bell has brought back fan-favorite flavors like “Southern Blackberry Cobbler” and introduced new limited-time offerings, including “Banana Pudding”. The company is also investing in sustainable packaging and energy-efficient production to reduce its environmental impact.

4. CAMAL Ltd Company

• CAMAL Ltd, known for its private-label ice cream production, has expanded its plant-based ice cream line, catering to the growing vegan market. The company is also focusing on clean-label ingredients and reducing artificial additives in its products.

5. Cold Stone Creamery

• Cold Stone has introduced new customizable cake options for celebrations and launched seasonal flavors like “Cereal Milk Ice Cream”. The brand is also expanding delivery partnerships with third-party apps to boost accessibility.

Conclusion

The Ice Cream Market is on a steady growth path. Consumers are increasingly drawn to premium, plant-based, and functional ice creams, while brands innovate with unique flavors and sustainable packaging. Emerging markets present major opportunities due to growing disposable incomes, while digital sales and improved cold chain logistics boost accessibility. Seasonal trends, social media influence, and nostalgia-driven marketing continue to shape demand. With companies expanding into keto-friendly, probiotic, and vegan options, the ice cream industry remains dynamic, promising exciting innovations and long-term profitability for key players.

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